In April 2025, Canada’s real estate market is showing cautious signs of recovery as homebuyers, sellers, and investors navigate a landscape shaped by lower interest rates and regional disparities across the country. From Alberta’s booming seller’s market to Ontario’s affordability struggles, national average home prices hover around $678,331 as of March, with experts predicting a 4.7% rise by year-end. This shift, driven by Bank of Canada rate cuts, comes amid uncertainties like U.S. tariff threats and immigration policy changes, raising the question: how will these factors influence the market’s trajectory for the rest of the year?
Overview
Current Canada Real Estate Market Snapshot
Canada’s national average home price increased to $678,331 in March 2025, marking a 1.5% rise from February 2025’s $668,097, according to WOWA.ca. However, it’s down 2.9% compared to March 2024. Seasonally adjusted sales activity totaled 35,517 transactions in March 2025, reflecting a 4.0% drop from February 2025 and a 7.7% decline year-over-year. The national benchmark home price, which tracks a “typical” home, stood at $712,200, down 0.2% month-over-month and 2.1% year-over-year.
Despite Bank of Canada rate cuts starting in June 2024, aimed at lowering borrowing costs, affordability challenges and economic uncertainty continue to temper buyer activity. Still, multiple provinces hit record-high home prices in March 2025, with Newfoundland leading at a 17.8% annual increase.
Canada Regional Variations
Canada’s real estate market shows stark provincial differences. In British Columbia, the benchmark price was $970,300 in March 2025, up 0.6% monthly but down 0.6% annually, with Vancouver’s sluggish sales lagging below the 10-year average. Ontario’s benchmark hit $845,200, down 4.0% year-over-year, with softening prices expected to persist into April, per WOWA.ca. Alberta’s benchmark reached $524,000, up 4.2% annually, fueled by demand in Calgary and Edmonton. Quebec’s benchmark was $520,800, up 8.4% year-over-year, with Montreal’s seller’s market (SNLR 66%) showing resilience. In Atlantic Canada, Newfoundland’s 17.8% price surge stood out, while Nova Scotia ($421,900) and New Brunswick ($320,000) saw gains of 4.6% and 8.6%, respectively.
| Province | Benchmark Price | Annual Change (%) | Market Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | $970,300 | -0.6% | Balanced Market |
| Ontario | $845,200 | -4.0% | Buyer’s Market |
| Alberta | $524,000 | 4.2% | Seller’s Market |
| Quebec | $520,800 | 8.4% | Seller’s Market |
| Nova Scotia | $421,900 | 4.6% | Balanced Market |
Source: WOWA.ca
Economic and Policy Influences
Lower interest rates from Bank of Canada cuts are encouraging buyers, yet affordability remains elusive in urban centers. Potential U.S. tariffs could shake economic stability, impacting confidence, while immigration policy shifts—such as reduced intake—may ease demand. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts a 4.7% price rise to $722,221 and a 6.8% sales increase to 532,704 units in 2025.
Expert Insights and Forecasts
Experts are cautiously optimistic. Royal LePage predicts a 5.0% price hike by Q4 2025, driven by affordable regions. Conversely, TD Economics foresees a 3.2% national price drop, with Ontario and British Columbia lagging. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) warns that U.S. tariffs could stall recovery, though further rate cuts to 2.25% might spur demand.
Challenges and Controversies
Affordability remains a barrier, especially in Toronto and Vancouver, locking out first-time buyers. Immigration policy uncertainty and U.S. tariff threats add complexity. PwC Canada notes, “The Canadian real estate market is at the end of a declining cycle. Once interest rates drop further, we’ll see slow growth improvement and, two years out, tremendous growth.”
Conclusion
As Canada’s real estate market edges toward recovery in April 2025, lower interest rates and regional strengths in Alberta and Quebec offer hope, yet affordability woes and external risks like U.S. trade policies cloud the outlook. Buyers and sellers should monitor Bank of Canada moves and global developments, which could determine whether this rebound strengthens or falters by year-end.
